Oxford Hypothesis

This page presents the countries listed in order of the expected time to reach conditional herd immunity based on the Oxford Hypothesis. This hypothesis is that the Infection Fatality rate is much lower than than the rate assumed by the CDC. Countries that have reached conditional herd immunity at a 95% confidence level according to the Oxford Hypothesis are shaded in green. Countries that are estimated to have reached conditional herd immunity at a lower level of confidence are shaded yellow.

Rank Country Years to Herd Immunity Immunity (%) R values TII (ppm) Strategy
151 Ghana 106.44 1.0 0.68 7.93
152 Cote d'Ivoire 106.56 0.44 0.8 7.56
153 Burkina Faso 109.82 0.31 1.11 9.67
154 Singapore 125.9 1.08 1.03 22.21
155 Niger 123.63 0.33 1.16 8.86
156 Sierra Leone 118.4 0.4 1.51 10.3
157 Uganda 237.72 0.3 1.13 4.53
158 New Zealand 268.88 0.21 0.29 2.77
159 Nigeria 317.94 0.4 0.91 2.94
160 Vietnam 964.67 0.01 1.1 1.07