Oxford Hypothesis

This page presents the countries listed in order of the expected time to reach conditional herd immunity based on the Oxford Hypothesis. This hypothesis is that the Infection Fatality rate is much lower than than the rate assumed by the CDC. Countries that have reached conditional herd immunity at a 95% confidence level according to the Oxford Hypothesis are shaded in green. Countries that are estimated to have reached conditional herd immunity at a lower level of confidence are shaded yellow.

Rank Country Years to Herd Immunity Immunity (%) R values TII (ppm) Strategy
141 Guinea 30.75 0.46 0.83 28.13
142 Guinea-Bissau 39.49 1.37 1.05 20.98
143 Malawi 41.53 2.42 0.64 21.4
144 Mozambique 46.45 1.06 0.78 18.03
145 Chad 60.04 0.43 1.19 17.77
146 Benin 61.08 0.33 1.46 22.98
147 Australia 63.14 1.4 1.46 16.39
148 Mauritius 97.23 0.51 0.19 5.06
149 Haiti 100.12 0.87 1.15 12.93
150 South Sudan 115.3 0.41 0.96 10.82