Oxford Hypothesis

This page presents the countries listed in order of the expected time to reach conditional herd immunity based on the Oxford Hypothesis. This hypothesis is that the Infection Fatality rate is much lower than than the rate assumed by the CDC. Countries that have reached conditional herd immunity at a 95% confidence level according to the Oxford Hypothesis are shaded in green. Countries that are estimated to have reached conditional herd immunity at a lower level of confidence are shaded yellow.

Rank Country Years to Herd Immunity Immunity (%) R values TII (ppm) Strategy
131 Angola 13.04 0.75 1.1 80.91
132 Zambia 13.7 2.79 0.88 63.65
133 Togo 14.99 0.67 0.78 75.37
134 Senegal 14.86 2.69 0.95 69.26
135 Mauritania 13.91 3.98 1.08 62.39
136 Rwanda 17.42 1.08 0.59 47.94
137 Sri Lanka 16.85 1.14 1.01 63.15
138 Thailand 22.28 0.08 1.59 102.53
139 Uzbekistan 23.95 0.77 1.31 49.71
140 Nicaragua 30.16 1.09 1.14 41.48