Oxford Hypothesis

This page presents the countries listed in order of the expected time to reach conditional herd immunity based on the Oxford Hypothesis. This hypothesis is that the Infection Fatality rate is much lower than than the rate assumed by the CDC. Countries that have reached conditional herd immunity at a 95% confidence level according to the Oxford Hypothesis are shaded in green. Countries that are estimated to have reached conditional herd immunity at a lower level of confidence are shaded yellow.

Rank Country Years to Herd Immunity Immunity (%) R values TII (ppm) Strategy
121 China 5.43 1.49 1.0 191.83
122 Zimbabwe 6.52 4.18 1.48 195.98
123 Sudan 5.99 2.16 1.51 109.02
124 Cameroon 6.38 1.66 1.26 220.63
125 Korea, South 6.39 1.45 1.0 155.65
126 Sao Tome and Principe 6.47 6.51 0.55 63.24
127 Iceland 9.96 3.19 2.62 197.66
128 Central African Republic 10.09 0.71 0.87 118.55
129 Afghanistan 11.6 2.66 1.15 90.59
130 Algeria 11.99 2.9 1.16 80.28