Oxford Hypothesis

This page presents the countries listed in order of the expected time to reach conditional herd immunity based on the Oxford Hypothesis. This hypothesis is that the Infection Fatality rate is much lower than than the rate assumed by the CDC. Countries that have reached conditional herd immunity at a 95% confidence level according to the Oxford Hypothesis are shaded in green. Countries that are estimated to have reached conditional herd immunity at a lower level of confidence are shaded yellow.

Rank Country Years to Herd Immunity Immunity (%) R values TII (ppm) Strategy
1 Peru -1.31 238.24 1.03 1956.68
2 Brazil -1.07 109.64 1.21 2672.86
3 US -0.88 84.09 0.87 5051.42
4 United Kingdom -0.79 83.29 1.08 7124.12
5 Sweden -0.74 56.06 0.68 797.9
6 Israel -0.63 36.06 0.83 3815.71
7 Australia 1.27 1.97 1.28 852.04
8 Singapore 2.71 1.47 1.45 1058.42
9 New Zealand 53.99 0.23 0.93 18.87